4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to CIN 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 38 for 5 yards (41-D.Worley).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model