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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 31

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model