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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 50 yards to BAL 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 5 yards (51-M.Bailey; 27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model