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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model