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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP