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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model