4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 11-J.Stout punts 28 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 18 for -1 yards (80-I.Likely).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +4.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model