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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 1 yard (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model