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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 58

Washington Commanders 6 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SEA 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model