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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model