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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 62

Washington Commanders 12 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 20-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model