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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 80

Washington Commanders 9 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to SEA 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 36 for 5 yards (34-C.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 37, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model