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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 31

Washington Commanders 6 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model