4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP