Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to TB 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-39-M.Jackson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at TB 12.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model