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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 35 yards to TEN 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 33-E.Garror ran ob at TEN 20 for 2 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model