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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model