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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model