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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model