Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(7:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model