Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(4:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to TB 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 31 for 15 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model