4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.71 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP