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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 87

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LV 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter to LV 47 for 11 yards (52-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model