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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 78

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LV 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 32 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.95 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model