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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 81

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to LV 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 3-D.Carter to LV 31 for 6 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model