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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model