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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 52

New York Jets 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model