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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to NYJ 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model