4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP