Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 58

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(1:45) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model