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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model