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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 6

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(:26) 35-J.Corbin left guard to DAL 5 for 1 yard (58-M.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.34 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model