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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 49

What Actually Happened

(1:38) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 35-J.Corbin to NYG 37 for 4 yards (25-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model