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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (51-A.Ojulari; 97-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +4.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +1.34 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth +0.15 EP
PUNT +0.80 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model