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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 28 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.44 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP