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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 42-D.Vaughn.

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model