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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 4

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to DAL 4 for no gain (95-J.Hankins, 90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model