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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 1
Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(1:02) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK
+1.63 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
