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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 61

New England Patriots 6 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 40 for 1 yard (94-Ty.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -0.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model