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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 10 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to NE 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP