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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model