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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NE 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP