4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP