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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 79

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model