4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 75

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to IND 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 29 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP