Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Green Bay Packers 19

(1:09) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to GB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-37-E.Riley.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.44 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model