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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to GB 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model