Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Green Bay Packers 16

(7:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to GB 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model