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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones to PIT 33 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model