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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP